As the legal noose seemed tightening around the Sharif family in the Panama scandal case in the Supreme Court, many were surprised by the court once again asking the parties if they favoured the formation of a commission to investigate the matter or they liked the case to be decided by the SC. The court clarified it will be a single-member commission with the powers to investigate and question anyone.
Most believe that the Panama affair – and involvement of Nawaz Sharif’s family – will be forgotten once a commission was formed to enquire into it. There are two reasons for this scepticism; one, history of commissions in this country, and two, the powers of the commission under the prevailing rules and regulations.
Most of the results of the commissions formed to investigate matters of national importance were either coerced into submitting reports to the liking of the governments or over other vested interests, or their reports didn’t see the light of the day. Starting from as great a tragedy as the dismemberment of the country to as sensitive an affair as the US operation in Abbottabad to sort Osama bin Laden out, no commission ever succeeded in showing the results for which it was established.
Secondly, any commission established under the existing legislation – without required changes to the laws to entrust it with greater/special powers (as previously suggested by the SC) – is bound to fail, as it will face legal hurdles sooner than expected. Absence of consensus on the terms of reference (ToRs) will be an additional factor to make its outcome inconclusive. These problems can be overcome by the legislature and the executive, as the judiciary cannot solve them on its own. Unfortunately, the government is not willing to take this course. The reasons are obvious; who on earth will agree to sign his/her own death warrant?
Political observers are of the opinion that such a development will ultimately result in undue advantage to the government and the ruling party and family.
This is obvious that the work of the commission will be lengthy. Though unlikely, the government will first try to delay its formation, agitating the matter before the court on legal grounds; separation of powers, authority of the executive, etc. Then it can try to cause delay in its work by way of non-cooperation. Different government departments and agencies may take (a long) time to provide required information. And who knows that when the information dossier is finally opened, it is found to be incomplete or misleading.
The relevant department may take the plea that it does not possess that particular bit of information as the ‘record’ was very old and ‘destroyed’ as the law didn’t ‘require’ it to be kept after such and such time.
Bingo! You hit a snag. Or you entered a blind alley. Whatever you may call it. But that is exactly what the government seems to be planning. But why?
Regardless of what the final findings may be, if a commission is formed it will buy time for Nawaz Sharif. And time is all what he needs. The government is most likely to continue with its present aggressive posturing, interpreting the proceedings inside the commission going in its favour. If nothing more, it will succeed in creating a huge confusion like the one that we are currently witnessing outside the courtroom everyday.
The government will use this time and try to complete as many developmental/mega projects as possible. Meanwhile, it is likely to announce early elections; at least as early as the final report of the commission hasn’t yet come. If the PML-N goes to elections in a situation like this, it will suffer minimum possible damage of as gigantic a scandal as Panamagate. It will return with more or less the same strength from Punjab. And that will be enough for the party to continue in power. Or at least, it can try.
If a report or final decision comes against him after that, it will result in disqualifying him and not the entire party or government. Shahbaz Sharif can replace him; even Ishaq Dar will do – as long as it (the government) remains in the family. That will be a big tragedy for the people; even bigger for the system.
As an alternative, if Nawaz Sharif felt that he can’t prolong his stay in power till the final report, he may announce elections while the enquiry is still in progress; telling the people, especially of Punjab, that though he is innocent and the court hasn’t yet found him guilty, he thought it in the fitness of things to present himself for the ultimate accountability by the people.
His constituency may decide to vote for him again but one thing is clear, he has lost the case politically. And he must keep it mind that there may be a bumpy road ahead.
What is at stake at the moment is the credibility and reputation of the judiciary, which has allowed itself to be sucked into a matter that was better solved politically. But it had to suffer equally had it decided not to intervene. Sometime, as they say, damned if you do, damned if you don’t.
