This is an element of the undertaking that most respondents and citizens are unable to understand the importance of poll surveys .The Sampling should have been a process of finding a random group of Pakistani eligible to vote,but it is conducted otherwise.
Keeter of Pew Research Survey says,”It’s more of a problem on questions about behaviors that are strongly socially desirable or undesirable,”.
Similarly Dr.Suleman Aziz Lodhi puts his opinion that ‘In the political system, voters belong to different communities with different social systems, demographics, and geographic locations. These communities share common understanding, their own routines, formal and informal rules and practices—– the social outcomes of communities are affected by peer interaction and transmitted generation to generation. The participation of the network members during the socialization process helps to develop and foster political knowledge As a result, these communities have elevated civic knowledge and promote political participation due to the development of strong social ties among the members of a network . The involvement of individual and political parties in the socialization process results in the development of political knowledge that has a direct effect on voters’ perception about political parties”.
A blog earlier this month published by Anthony Wells, director of political and social polling at the London based YouGov, set out what he believes to be the six main reasons that his craft is failing. He says that telephone polls and online polls are inaccurate and these polls under-represent the views of “hard to reach”the respondents; He further adds that very few educated people are less likely to respond to pollsters.Finally, he argues that estimates of voter turnout are most of the times reported inaccurately and method for allocating space for respondent “don’t know” is wrong.
Some serious flaws in basic research method, sampling approach and design, data collection method. I don’t suppose we are going to have a response to following questions raised? interns Survey based on 1293 respondents?
Why not 1295? Our coverage was national (all four provinces including FATA), and rural/urban? are they mutually exclusive?
54% of our respondents were male, 46% women 31% we young (under 30), 48% middle aged (30-50)? What is considered to be young or middle aged?
Do we have operational definition? and 21% old (50+). 67% of our respondents were in rural areas and 33% of the respondents were in urban areas. Our mode of surveying was face to face? How you approached the respondent? how you measure the level of political knowledge ? available choices? alternate evaluation criteria?
However, the survey was conducted from June 22-24. You can expect a margin of error of +/- 3% at a 95% confidence interval.
Perhaps more significantly as research has showed, people are more likely to give actual opinion based on their own understanding.
Moreover, Opinion polling, whether to understand or to predict voting intentions of voters is a tough task. There is pressure on polling survey conducting organization to lower down costs in order to undermine rivals.
It has come under my observation that a young undergraduate paid small amount to work casually as a survey conductor. He conducted survey research among the middle-class society only.
Accurate and reliable polling of intentions assumes greater importance as it influences public opinion and decides the upcoming regime in the country. The survey conducting organizations need to play their role, and media need to realize that they have to pay the cost of harvesting quality information to the public.
