ISLAMABAD: A latest American report says Afghan Taliban have expanded their control over the past six months and the insurgents now rule 54 districts of the country’s total of 407 districts.
The Taliban have intensified their operations since they have launched their “Spring Offensive” in late April. This year’s operation “Mansouri Operations” named after their chief, Mullah Akhtar Mansour, who was killed in a US drone strike in May last year.
“As of August 2017, there were 54 districts under insurgent control (13) or influence (41), an increase of nine districts over the last six months. Therefore, 13.3% of the country’s total districts are now under insurgent control or influence, a more than two percentage point increase over the last six months, and a five point increase from the same period in 2016,” according to a report issued on Wednesday by the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR), a monitoring agency that oversees reconstruction projects and other activities in Afghanistan.
The Afghan government’s district and population control deteriorated to its lowest level since SIGAR began analyzing district control data in December 2015 and population control data in September 2016.
According to US forces in Afghanistan, approximately 56.8% of the country’s 407 districts are under Afghan government control or influence as of August 24, 2017, a one point decline over the last six months and a more than six point decline from the same period last year.
Of the 407 districts of Afghanistan’s 34 provinces, 231 districts were under government control (74 districts) or influence (157 districts). The number of contested districts (122) remained mostly unchanged and represents 30% of Afghanistan’s districts.
It was not clear whether these districts are at risk or if neither the insurgency nor the Afghan government exercises any significant control over these areas, as the US forces in Afghanistan previously described.
The US forces reported this quarter that 3.7 million Afghans (11.4% of the population) live in districts under insurgent control or influence. This is a 700,000-person increase over the last six months.
Meanwhile, as SIGAR has reported, the Afghan national defence security force is suffering unsustainable casualty rates, Taliban insurgents and terrorist groups operate in much of the country, and large areas of Afghanistan are no-go zones for foreigners.
The report said American combat casualties are also rising as the US troop commitment increases. From January 1 through August 23, 2017, 10 US military personnel were killed in Afghanistan, and 48 were wounded.
In a significant development this quarter (Aug-Oct), the US forces classified or otherwise restricted information SIGAR has until now publicly reported.
These include important measures of Afghan forces’ performance such as casualties, personnel strength, attrition, capability assessments, and operational readiness of equipment.
The Afghan government had insisted the casualty data belonged to Afghanistan and the government had requested that it be classified.
Afghan experts say that as the US military intensified air strikes and also increased ground operations, the Taliban fighters also stepped up attacks.
Ahmadullah Ahmadzai, an Afghan analyst, it seems that the Taliban have increased their attacks on the security forces as President Donald Trump focused on military option in his strategy for Afghanistan.
“Taliban now have bases in most of Afghanistan that provide space to more fighters. As they have more areas, more space under their control, they will have more manpower,” Ahmadzai told Daily Times on Wednesday.
“As the US and Afghan forces will expand operations against the Taliban, the Taliban will also show their strength to dispel the impression that the Trump’s strategy has affected their ability,” he said.
He also referred to the last month’s deadly attacks in Kabul, Ghazni, Kandahar and Paktia on the security forces, which killed nearly 200 security personnel in less than a week.
Increase in US strikes: The SIGAR has noted a sharp increase in American air strikes in Afghanistan in the last several months, which indicates US forces are taking a more active combat role.
According to NATO Resolute Support (RS), the United States has conducted 2,400 air strikes from January to September 2017, the most since 2014.
The United States Air Force (USAF) Central Command Combined Air Operations Center also reported that the United States dropped 751 munitions against the Taliban and Islamic State-Khorasan (IS-K) targets in September 2017, a record high since 2012 and a 50% increase since August.
“In line with the Administration’s strategy to prevent safe havens and proactively target extremists that threaten Afghan security, the largest number of strikes occurred in IS-K strongholds in eastern Nangarhar province and Taliban-held areas in southern Helmand province. The USAF will continue to expand its operations in Afghanistan,” SIGAR said.
Published in Daily Times, November 2nd 2017.
